The Following Hand Has Three Different Endings
July 23rd, 2009
Here's a familiar situation, involving Jim (the jackal) and Jerry (unknown profile). You have J-J and you've made it three bets over the top of Jim's two bets (reraised) before the flop. Jerry calls you from the big blind, and the flop is 0-0-0. Jerry bets out on the flop, Jim calls the bet, and you raise it, to find out what they really have. Both players call your raise, and then 0 comes off on the turn and they both check to you. You bet out, thinking your J-J is still the best hand, and they both call again.
The last card is 0, for a final board of 0-0-0-0-0. Jerry bets out and Jim calls. The 0 was probably the worst possible card for your hand, other than 0, because now you can't beat a flush, a straight, or a pair of kings. Jerry probably has you beaten, but how about Jim? It looks to me as if Jim has you beaten here as well.
Here, I'd put Jim on K-Q, which makes a pair of kings for him on the end. Think about it. If Jim has a flush, then he would have raised on the end. If Jim has kings and tens (another possibility, given the way the hand unfolded), then he would probably have raised on the flop himself, with his pair of tens. Whatever the case may be, it looks as if Jim has you beaten. It's true that there is already $125 ($45 + $30 + $30 + $20) in the pot, so you need to be over 92 percent sure that you're beaten before you decide to fold. But given this situation, I would have to fold, because I'd be convinced that both players have me beaten. Both players expect you to call on the end, and the chances that both of them are trying to bluff you therefore seem very remote to me.
Let's suppose now that the last card is 0, for [*♦]-[Vj"S~S~ 0, and now Jerry bets out into you and Jim folds. This bet would seem very suspicious to me, and I would call it very quickly. I would be thinking, "Why did Jerry decide to bet right here and now? I don't think that the six helped him, so he's either bluffing or holding an ace." If I'm facing an either-or situation and getting this kind of pot odds, I'm going to call without hesitation.
Let's suppose again that the last card is 0, for
SH8-H-
13-[3, and now both opponents check to you. Do you bet here or check? If you bet here, you have to be hoping that either Jerry or Jim will call you with a pair of tens or worse. I wouldn't be worried about Jim in this case, but Jerry would concern me a little bit. (Could Jerry have an ace with no kicker, like A-2, A-3, or A-5, which would explain why he just called on the flop? Did he fear an ace with a kicker on the flop?) This "value bet" that you're considering making (a bet you make believing that it will earn slightly more than it will lose, over the long run) is one that needs a little bit of reading ability as well (a little finesse). If you decide to bet, then that's fine; if you decide to check, that's fine too. I would bet it myself unless I felt strongly that Jerry had me beaten. We'll talk more about value betting in the intermediate and advanced sections.
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Poker – Folding On The River
July 22nd, 2009
Let's assume that you have Q-Q in a four-way-action pot with a board of 0-0-0-0, and tnat there has been a lot of betting and raising on the flop during this hand. Say now that 0 comes off the deck and a mouse bets into you. You'll want to fold your hand without further thought. The 0 makes a flush, a straight, and a pair of aces all possible. That combined with the specter of a mouse betting into you is a scary scenario! You'd probably have to fold even if a jackal bet into you, especially if there are other opponents in the hand behind you yet to act. It is also a bad sign for you that there was so much betting and raising on the flop; this suggests that there are straight and flush draws out there. Some cards are just so bad that you have to fold.
The Board Is So Bad I Surrender!
Suppose you have 0-0, tne noP comes 0-0-0 (tms 1S one of the worst possible flops for your hand), and two opponents are really "jamming it" with you on the flop. Say 0 hits on the turn, they both check, you bet, and they both call you. Now you know that you probably have the best hand at this point, since no one has raised you, but you're also sure that your opponents have big draws. (What else could they have been jamming it with on the flop?) So when pops up on the river, for 0-0-0-0-0, what can you beat? Any heart makes a flush and any seven or queen makes a straight. How can you call even one bet on the end, especially given the way the others have played the hand? You can't even beat an opponent who holds 0-0 (that hand makes two pairs). Even though you waited hours for your A-A, and even though the pot odds are pretty good, sometimes you just have to surrender!
Now let's take a look at some situations where, most of the time, you just have to call on the river because of the pot odds.
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